Express Entry 2026 Shake-Up: Why Lower CRS Scores May Be Closer Than You Think

Canada’s immigration system is clearly shifting—and if you’re an immigration candidate, this shift could work in your favour. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is now actively prioritizing the transition of temporary residents already in Canada into permanent residents, and this is reshaping how Express Entry operates.

As discussed in Gateway to Canada’s recent breakdown of the "TR to PR pathway", the government is no longer just focused on bringing in new applicants—it is increasingly focused on keeping the people who are already here. This includes workers, graduates, and other temporary residents who are already contributing to the Canadian economy and filling labour shortages.

A System Designed to Transition Temporary Residents

Under Canada’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, the government has introduced one-time measures to accelerate the transition of temporary residents to permanent residence, including up to 33,000 workers already in Canada.

This confirms what many immigration professionals have been observing: Canada is deliberately moving toward a system where in-Canada applicants are prioritized. The rumored "TR to PR pathway"—highlighted in Gateway to Canada’s Q&A guide—is part of this broader strategy.

Rather than relying solely on overseas applicants, IRCC is selecting individuals who:

• Already have Canadian work experience

• Are integrated into the labour market

• Are filling urgent gaps in key sectors

What This Means for Express Entry 2026

This shift has major implications for Express Entry 2026 draws. Traditionally, the system rewarded candidates with the highest Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores. But today, IRCC is moving toward a more targeted and flexible approach.

With the rise of category-based draws, candidates are now selected based on:

• Occupation (e.g., healthcare, trades, STEM)

• Language ability (e.g., French proficiency)

• Canadian work experience

This means that CRS score is no longer the only deciding factor. A candidate with a lower score but the “right” profile may now receive an invitation ahead of someone with a higher score.

A Strong Possibility: Lower CRS Cut-Offs

As Canada continues prioritizing temporary residents and targeted occupations, there is a very real possibility that CRS cut-off scores will decrease in certain draws.

Why? Because IRCC is no longer asking only “Who has the highest score?” Instead, the question is now:

“Who is already contributing to Canada—and should stay?”

This shift opens the door for many candidates who may have previously felt discouraged by high CRS thresholds. In category-based draws or Canadian Experience Class-focused selections, moderate CRS scores can become competitive.

A Lesson from 2021: The 75 CRS Draw

If this sounds unlikely, history says otherwise.

In 2021, IRCC conducted a historic Express Entry draw with a CRS cut-off of just 75 points, inviting thousands of candidates already in Canada under the Canadian Experience Class. This was done specifically to transition temporary residents to permanent status during the pandemic.

The takeaway is powerful: immigration policy can change quickly—and dramatically. Those who already had Express Entry profiles were the ones who benefited immediately.

Why You Should Have an Express Entry Profile—Even with a Low CRS

In today’s environment, waiting for a “high enough” CRS score is no longer the best strategy. Having an active Express Entry profile is critical, even if your score is currently low.

You cannot receive an invitation if you are not in the pool. With category-based draws expanding and new policies emerging quickly, being in the system ensures that you are eligible the moment an opportunity arises.

It also allows you to improve your profile over time—by gaining more work experience, improving language scores, or securing a provincial nomination—while remaining visible to IRCC.

The Bottom Line: Be Ready, Not Perfect

Canada’s immigration system is not slowing down—it is becoming more strategic, targeted, and responsive to labour market needs. With IRCC actively accelerating the transition of temporary residents to permanent residence, Express Entry is evolving alongside it.

Lower CRS scores, more category-based draws, and increased opportunities for in-Canada applicants are no longer just possibilities—they are already beginning to take shape.

And as 2021 proved, when the system shifts, it rewards those who are already in position.

Gateway to Canada Insight

As highlighted in our TR to PR pathway guide, the direction is clear: Canada wants to keep the talent it already has. Express Entry remains one of the most important tools in that process.

The smartest move you can make right now is simple—get into the pool and stay ready.